Probability is the possibility of a specific event occurring. For example, in tossing a coin, there are two possible outcomes: heads or tails. If the price offered on an event occurring is add up to its probability, then your price could be deemed fair (in the above example, Evens either event).In trying to predict the end result of football matches, an approximation of probability can only be produced by considering historical evidence, along with some other influential factors. For extended events, unknown factors (e.g. weather) can affect the possibility of a specific event occurring. `Fair` costs are educated guesses of the expected likelihood of an event occurring, since exact calculations are impossible. Bookmakers form an opinion on the likelihood of an event occurring and price it accordingly. There is a prospect of profit if they are wrong, assuming, needless to say, that the punter notices the error.
Fixed odds` betting has its origins in the fixed prizes provided by late nineteenth-century newspapers for forecasting match outcomes ufa191. Bookmakers still offer fixed odds.` The word applies more to high street betting offices, who publish a lengthy set of football matches and their odds for the coming weekend several days in advance. This is a costly process and cannot be repeated if mistakes are created or if the bookmaker needs to improve a price. When the list visits print, the betting odds become fixed. An Internet bookmaker has more flexibility and can alter a price to control his projected liability. However, even for high profile matches, with a big turnover, the odds designed for the standard home/draw/away market do not change by significantly more than about 10%.
Rating Systems & Value Bets
For football betting, determining such probabilities involves the analysis of previous events. Some punters use a numerical method of historical analysis, referred to as ratings systems.
The traditional method of beating the bookmaker has been through forecasting and prediction techniques in an attempt to reveal errors by the bookmaker. The punter approaches an event in the same manner because the bookmaker, namely estimating the likelihood of a specific result and giving it a numerical value. This results in both bookmaker and punter calculating their very own price for a specific outcome. If the bookmaker`s price is greater than that of the punter, this constitutes a value bet.
Popular Betting Events
English football is unquestionably probably the most significant betting medium. Since its inception in 1992, betting on the Football Premiership has increased in every season. The domestic cup competitions, predominantly the F.A. Cup, also attract vast numbers of online wagers. Consequently of television coverage, top European players in the Champions` League are becoming household names. The Champions` League is also a source of many online football bets, even if you have no British team involved. The exact same could be said of Euro 2008. Despite all of the `home` nations failing to qualify, online betting interest has been lively. World Cup 2010 has additionally seen some online betting action, even as of this early stage.